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The temperatures have been unseasonably mild this spring, at
least for the eastern side of Texas. Highs in the low 80s, then
into the 60s at night. Even more unusual has been the low
humidity. Swimming pools are just now starting to warm up to the
mid 70s (the minimum for most people in these parts), when most
years the kids used to start swimming in April.
I've been opening the sliding doors in the evening to take
advantage of the natural air conditioning while puttering around
the apartment. My third floor exposure looks out onto a large
creek that is backed up from the lake it empties into, so it is
really more like a pond. On the other side is a golf course.
Every night when it gets dark, the symphony begins. That would
be the frog symphony. Well, at least the frogs are the major
pieces; there are crickets and cicadas too, but they are only
the accompaniment. If I'm watching TV, I mute the sound during
commercials, to enjoy that free natural music.
M and I went to a free human symphony performance on Friday
evening at the Pavilion, featuring selections from Mozart and
Bizet. These summer performances are not only free, if you like
sitting on a blanket on the sloping grass bank, but patrons are
encouraged to bring a picnic dinner if they want. We packed a
bottle of wine, a bag of cheese cubes, and a loaf of freshly
baked Wal Mart French bread. When we got to the gate, they were
asking people what was in their bags, but they weren't searching
anything. When they asked if we had any glass, I foolishly told
them we had a bottle of wine, and they said we couldn't take it
in. But the looks on their faces told me that these new rules
(last year it was OK) weren't their idea, so we walked around to
the other gate, and this time I kept my mouth shut, and we
walked right in.
These outdoor things are different from the traditional
classical concert in a stuffy auditorium. Instead of fancy
clothes, absolute quiet and few children, these are relaxing
family events, and small children are everywhere. There were
several games of nerf football going on at the top of the hill
behind us, until it got too dark to see. And rather than being a
distraction, the squeals and laughter from the little voices in
the distance were a pleasant accompaniment to the musicians on
the stage down below. It was a very nice picnic.
 Yesterday
we took our first trip to the beach for the season. We arrived
just in time for lunch on the verandah of "The Spot", the
home-cooked burger place across the street, then trundled our
new gear down onto the sand. I usually try to pack light, but
the umbrella and chairs were worth the effort. We even brought a
bulb planter to make the hole for the umbrella pole - a big
improvement from the usual old spoon. I think ours was the most
colorful shade device on the beach...
Today we'll have a morning bike ride after a late breakfast,
then relax out by the pool in the afternoon, and finally travel
down to a local winery this evening to sample their wares and
promised Polynesian entertainment. It should be another fun day. |
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And the trees were all made equal,
by hatchet, axe and saw.
Rush, The Trees
 I've
written many times about how I derive my spiritual needs from
immersing myself in the beauty of nature. So it was with heavy
heart that I viewed the devastation just west of our garden when
I traveled home for the weekend. Loggers were clearing a
space as big as two football fields in order to allow the
eventual drilling of a natural gas well. They were just doing
their job, and they were very good at it.
 I
was there on Friday morning in time to see the loggers take down
the last 80 foot tall pin oak. You can see from the shape of the
foliage that it was once surrounded by dense forest. When it
came crashing down, the limbs popping like firecrackers, my
heart leapt into my throat, and I had to sit down for a moment.
It may seem silly to be so attached to a bunch of trees, but
these woods were my childhood playground. There was a two-track
trail that ran close by this tree, and I remember when my late
cousin, Tommy, and I drove our summer project, a dune buggy made
from an old Studebaker sedan, over one of its big exposed roots
and bounced way up in the air, flattening one of the old may-pop
tires. That dune buggy only lasted for a couple of rides
before something terminal went wrong with it. But those
troublesome roots will soon be covered with red dirt and gravel,
nicely leveled for the heavy equipment that will punch a hole
into mother earth, so her breath can be sucked out to heat
homes.
I hope its all worth it. |
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I generally like taking the optimistic view of things, but now
that I can visualize retirement, or at least separation from
corporate America in my future, my views about all things
financial have become more conservative. For many people
in my situation, that ticket to a comfortable retirement is in
the form of cash from years of 401k contributions and lump sum
pension benefits that must be invested prudently to keep growing
and stay ahead of inflation. And there is the rub. If you stuff
your money in a mattress, it becomes worth less every day. The
interest you can get from a bank almost keeps up with inflation,
but you stay even at best. And the stock market seems more like
gambling the last few years.
It's hard to know what leads to a secure financial future. I got
a statement from the Social Security Administration the other
day that said if I retire at age 62, I'll get something like
$1500 per month until I die. It's enough to keep us from
starving, if we have our other affairs in order by then, which
we will barring some calamity. Our president wants us to believe
in the stock market and trade in our sure-thing social security
for a maybe. I'd like to believe he's right, but things can
change. Ask someone in Japan how their stock market has
done for the last 20 years. I'll give you a hint - not very
well, and they are the second largest national economy on the
planet, with hard working people.
I was reading an article today that used the phrase "credit
bubble" to refer to the current financial condition in the
country. And many others are talking of a real estate bubble.
Having suffered through the stock market bubble a few years ago,
where prices reached ridiculous levels, talk of bubbles gets my
attention. In hindsight it was either naive wishful
thinking, or
maybe simple foolishness that so many of us rode the
raging bull until it expired in a heap beneath us, taking away all that
newfound wealth that never really existed, unless you were lucky
enough to jump off while it was still kicking.
This credit thing could be serious.
When I finished college and got my first professional job, I had
no credit. Back then, a college student trying to get a loan or
a credit card would be laughed out of the bank, unless a parent
would co-sign. I got my first credit card from Sears, who had
the loosest credit terms of anyone, so I could buy a television
for my new apartment. (Maybe that's part of why Sears slid
so far they were bought up by K-Mart after that bastion of
retail savvy went bankrupt, fleeced their shareholders and
creditors, then somehow had enough equity left to swallow a
bigger company. Elliot Spitzer, where are you?)
Back to my story though... that new television pretty much maxed out
the card, and I started making payments. Based on my good
payment history with Sears, I eventually got a Visa card also,
and promptly bought a beautiful Sansui stereo receiver and a
nice Japanese 10-speed bicycle, maxing that
card out. Within a couple of years, I added a car loan fir my
new Mustang, and a
mortgage for our first house, so I was having lots of fun making payments. Back
then, the fix was in and all credit cards offered the same high
rates, no questions asked. Inflation was in double digits
though, so raises were big every year, and you could get over
15% interest by putting your savings in a money market fund. It
was a wild time.
Nowadays, credit cards are very competitive and heavily marketed
to everyone, even to students with no job,
and many people get way overextended. For people like me who
have learned financial discipline the hard way, they can even be
a great source of temporary zero interest loans. The card
companies know that most people think they can pay the money
back before the promotional period expires, but instead they
just dig their hole deeper.
Maybe the card
companies have figured out that parents who understand the
hardship of losing one's credit rating will usually bail a
child out and help with the payments. And working people have
got used to seeing their entire paycheck go to debt service,
with no real hope of ever getting all that money paid back.
Which gets to the big concern:
Now that leaving one's debts behind through bankruptcy has been
made much harder, the next recession (yes, there will be a next)
could be really bad, with a lot of folks going from high living
on credit cards to the poor house on welfare in a very short
time. When you have no savings, as soon as the paycheck stops,
the foreclosures and repossessions begin. It could be really
ugly. A depression is what happens when a recession gets so
deep, the money cycle just dies and can't get moving again. Last
time it happened, Social Security was invented.
I think I'll stick with the sure thing for my fallback position,
in case all those hard earned savings aren't enough.
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